Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 3 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 11 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 11 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 25% on 9 Oct 2026. $379.18 traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 12, 12:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 11 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mmakingbet | Yes | 283.73 |
| avidadeumamao | Yes | 95.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Andre Fili and Kai Kamaka III at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-and2-kai2-2026-10-10
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