Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 61%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 6 Sep 2026 to 20 Sep 2026, the highest close was 51% on 7 Sep 2026 and the lowest 39% on 20 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 39.5% on 15 Sep 2026. $3K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 21, 4:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 6 Sep 2026 – 20 Sep 2026, chart shows 35%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 39.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sour-Nephew | Yes | 90.91 |
| St-Qc | Yes | 66 |
| Decent-Corporal | Yes | 30 |
| Heavenly-Exaggeration | Yes | 23.26 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ale8-jos49-2026-09-19
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