Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 88%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 13 Sep 2026 to 26 Sep 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 20 Sep 2026 and the lowest 12% on 26 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 27% on 23 Sep 2026. $129.53 traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 27, 9:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 13 Sep 2026 – 26 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | 12.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mickey31 | Yes | 108.7 |
| Left-Buffet | Yes | 20.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Alatengheili and John Castaneda at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ala1-joh9-2026-09-26
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