
Yes is at 25.5%, about where the market opened on 9 Oct 2026.
The high was 29% on 13 Oct 2026 and the low 17.5% on 11 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 23%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 17.5% on 11 Oct 2026.
Draw (FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC) ranks third of the 3 outcomes in “FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC”. FC Bayern München leads at 43.5%; Arsenal FC is at 31.5%.
$313.47K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $314.95K since listing. The order book holds $900.75K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 424 trades, $77.9K bought Yes and $2.23K bought No; the largest was a $9.57K buy of Yes at 25.0¢.
The largest Yes position is UpTheBlues with 123.6K shares; the largest No position is Substantial-Service with 300K. Ten wallets hold 97.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 21 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 21, 1:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 9 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 15%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 26.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Substantial-Service | No | 300K |
| UpTheBlues | Yes | 123.56K |
| Flaznorp | Yes | 91.7K |
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 21, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ucl-bay-ars-2026-10-21
| dv-pm |
| Yes |
| 76.21K |
| ferdinand2 | Yes | 10K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.65K |
| C63AMG | No | 5K |
| testyeagles | Yes | 4.41K |
| hedgevaultmainnet1 | No | 2.48K |
| AnonymousUsername | No | 2.2K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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