Analytics
Yes is at 45.5%, down 2 points from 47.5% when the market opened on 9 Oct 2026.
The high was 71.5% on 11 Oct 2026 and the low 43.5% on 15 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 47%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 71.5% on 11 Oct 2026.
FC Bayern München is the favourite of the 3 outcomes in “FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC”, ahead of Arsenal FC at 29.5%.
$713.69K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $744.11K since listing. The order book holds $402.95K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $29.09K bought Yes and $360.55K bought No; the largest was a $158.82K buy of No at 53.0¢.
The largest Yes position is RJW1 with 660.4K shares; the largest No position is Takon88 with 299.7K. Ten wallets hold 95.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 21 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 21, 4:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 9 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 47.5% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 45.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RJW1 | Yes | 660.36K |
| Takon88 | No | 299.67K |
| Substantial-Service | No | 208.86K |
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 21, 2026 If FC Bayern München wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ucl-bay-ars-2026-10-21
| nigiri99 |
| No |
| 71.01K |
| omnibus-076daa | No | 62.81K |
| Keen Voyager 1650 | Yes | 20.89K |
| VD721lsj4938Dk388 | No | 17.56K |
| AnonymousUsername | No | 8.59K |
| VeryLucky888 | Yes | 7.85K |
| Kyn008 | No | 6.88K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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