Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 87%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 14 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 4 Dec 2025, the highest close was 15.5% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 9% on 18 Nov 2025. $22.27K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 5, 8:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 4 Dec 2025, chart shows 5%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 15.5% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | 13.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| oak | Yes | 1.61K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 880 |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 794.17 |
| Unlawful-Multimedia | Yes | 686.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Trump wins FIFA Peace Prize - Donald Trump is in top 5 in Google’s official Year in Search 'People' list for 2025 - 42%+ approval rating for Donald Trump on December 31 Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump's+Christmas+Wishlist.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trumps-christmas-wishlist
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 192 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 177 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 171 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 136 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 118 |
| Anjun | Yes | 75.74 |
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