Analytics
Resolved No on 4 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 54.5% on 15 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 15 Apr 2025 to 4 May 2025, the highest close was 62% on 17 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 12.5% on 26 Apr 2025. $496.63K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 5, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 15 Apr 2025 – 4 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2025 | 54.5% |
| 4 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thoth777 | Yes | 1K |
| rivox | Yes | 1K |
| zaddychill | Yes | 268.67 |
| novidia | Yes | 8.77 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and another country, or a multi-country entity such as the European Union, between April 14 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the listed country/entity, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-trade-deal-in-april
| majorlosses | No | 4.35 |
| waltem | Yes | 3.37 |
| DickTurbin | No | 0.07 |
| Wickier | No | 0.02 |
| kdkd2211 | No | 0.01 |
| Generator | No | 0.01 |
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