Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 60.5%. Yes opened at 21% on 26 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2025 to 28 Jun 2025, the highest close was 67.5% on 27 Jun 2025 and the lowest 21% on 26 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 47 points up, to 67.5% on 27 Jun 2025. $57.28K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 29, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 26 Jun 2025 – 28 Jun 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2025 | 21.0% |
| 28 Jun 2025 | 60.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SiriusLupin | No | 554.21 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 524 |
| PDMan | No | 345 |
| ydrips | No | 45.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and another country, or a multi-country entity such as the European Union, between June 24 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the listed country/entity, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-trade-deal-before-july
| regelee | No | 38.64 |
| smlj | No | 34.48 |
| BlueRise | No | 28.72 |
| VJ2 | No | 25.32 |
| tommyet | No | 23.12 |
| rndmwlkr | No | 14.29 |
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