Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 13% on 4 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 120 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 57% on 11 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 48 points up, to 57% on 11 Apr 2025. $97.9K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 120 points, 4 Mar 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2025 | 13.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Letmehaveit | Yes | 80 |
| tixon | Yes | 7.14 |
| djbalch | Yes | 6.67 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that includes a reduction in Medicare funding or eligibility is passed by both the US House of Representatives and Senate and signed into law by the Donald Trump by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction in Medicare refers to a decrease in federal funding or a significant reduction in benefits, as widely reported by a consensus of credible reporting. Temporary or minor administrative changes will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-signs-bill-cutting-medicare-before-july
| Yes |
| 5 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 1.01 |
| borogrid | Yes | 0.02 |
| kuplinow | Yes | 0.02 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 0.02 |
| NiGriMa671 | Yes | 0.01 |
| partys | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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