Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7% on 1 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 62 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 7% on 1 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2025. $140.57K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 62 points, 1 Mar 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2025 | 7.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kaay | Yes | 466.67 |
| burlo | Yes | 389.96 |
| Beardedf | Yes | 94.29 |
| Relieved-Substance | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US officially announces that it has suspended diplomatic relations with Ukraine by 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the US government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-severs-ties-with-ukraine-before-may
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| PotatoTomato | Yes | 50 |
| BreadWinner | Yes | 40 |
| Uweeshbud | Yes | 32.57 |
| Karekken | No | 0.02 |
| blyagha | No | 0.02 |
| DDoNN | No | 0.02 |
