Analytics
Resolved Yes on 7 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 44% on 11 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 11 Feb 2025 to 7 Mar 2025, the highest close was 99.4% on 7 Mar 2025 and the lowest 44% on 11 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 66.5% on 12 Feb 2025. $84.28K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 8, 6:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 11 Feb 2025 – 7 Mar 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2025 | 44.0% |
| 7 Mar 2025 | 99.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ICktaphXXU | No | 349.7 |
| JkYDxmSGUP | No | 167 |
| PolyDump | No | 49.42 |
| malfboi3 | No | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s disapproval rating on FiveThirtyEight is higher than his approval rating for any date between February 9 and April 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s disapproval rating must be higher than his approval rating, ties will not qualify. The approval/disapproval ratings for each date will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for any date remains unavailable, the nearest previous approval/disapproval figures will be used. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/, specifically the disapproval rating indicated by the purple "disapprove", and the green “approve” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between approval and disapproval ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after April 30, 2025 is published. If the first data point after April 30, 2025 is published, and there is still no data point for April 30, this market will resolve according to all prior data points. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-negative-approval-before-may
| epstes | Yes | 0.03 |
| otencrtu | Yes | 0.02 |
| bignickck | Yes | 0.01 |
| maniputakl | Yes | 0.01 |
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