Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 66.5% on 28 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 66.5% on 28 Aug 2025 and the lowest 1.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 49.5% on 30 Aug 2025. $8.24K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 4:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 28 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | 66.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PunterC | Yes | 884.99 |
| lissartter | Yes | 137.02 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 132.95 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 105 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a tariff on imports of semiconductors into the United States by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tariffs specifically targeting semiconductors will qualify. For example, a general tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or country-specific tariff (tariffs on all imports from China) will not count toward this market's resolution. Tariffs on semiconductors from a specific country will qualify. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-imposes-tariff-on-semiconductors-by-september-30
| dereg | Yes | 77.73 |
| tonyraviolli | No | 50.63 |
| Markimark65 | Yes | 50.56 |
| Hoower | Yes | 40 |
| ErDmKo | Yes | 18.52 |
| HunchexBot | Yes | 5.8 |
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