Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.2%. Yes opened at 50% on 20 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 20 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 16.5% on 21 Mar 2026. $249.4K traded over the market's life.
125 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 6:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 20 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| benchpressyourfeels | Yes | 23.1K |
| artichokes | Yes | 9.82K |
| destroyevsky | Yes | 6.22K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 2.17K |
| Mags22 | Yes | 1.81K |
| Stiff-Vegetarian | Yes | 1.56K |
| 8767678 | Yes | 1K |
| Tricky-Option | Yes | 945.77 |
| Bright Raven 0A68 | Yes | 695.86 |
| Kravada | Yes | 625 |
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