What is the “Trump conviction declared a mistrial?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Trump conviction declared a mistrial? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 4, 2024. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

On June 7 it was reported a person posted the comment “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted” a day before the conviction, leading to speculation the conviction could be declared a mistrial (see https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1799190574353756499). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump hush money case is declared a mistrial before sentencing. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no sentence is rendered by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($116.27K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 15 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 99.4% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Nov 5, 10:07 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/trump-conviction-declared-a-mistrial) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | Polymarket odds & analytics

beta

Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencetrump-conviction-declared-a-mistrialUpdated Nov 5, 2024

politicsClosed

Scheduled close Nov 4, 2024donald-trumptrump-trials

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Observed Yes 0¢Observed No 100¢

24h Volume

$116.3K

Scheduled close

Nov 4, 2024

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Nov 5, 2024

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Nov 5, 2024

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

0.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

99%

Yes / No shares

5.14K / 44.34

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

299

Loaded notional

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Nov 5, 12:00 AM

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Nov 5, 12:00 AM	1.3%	1.3%
Nov 4, 12:00 AM	1.1%	1.1%
Nov 3, 12:00 AM	0.6%	0.6%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Trump conviction declared a mistrial?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Trump conviction declared a mistrial? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 4, 2024. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: On June 7 it was reported a person posted the comment “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted” a day before the conviction, leading to speculation the conviction could be declared a mistrial (see https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1799190574353756499). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump hush money case is declared a mistrial before sentencing. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no sentence is rendered by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($116.27K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.