Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 8 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 151 daily closes on record from 8 Jun 2024 to 5 Nov 2024, the highest close was 17% on 23 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 31 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 17% on 23 Jul 2024. $116.27K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 5, 10:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 151 points, 8 Jun 2024 – 5 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jun 2024 | 6.5% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | 1.3% |
On June 7 it was reported a person posted the comment “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted” a day before the conviction, leading to speculation the conviction could be declared a mistrial (see https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1799190574353756499). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump hush money case is declared a mistrial before sentencing. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no sentence is rendered by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-conviction-declared-a-mistrial
| jumper | Yes | 120 |
| gaoxxxx | Yes | 100 |
| Yellow-Deodorant | Yes | 28.57 |
| darts | No | 26.19 |
| MountainEcho | Yes | 25 |
| Usable-Sticker | Yes | 25 |
| Mola386 | Yes | 14.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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