Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 22% on 24 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 69 daily closes on record from 24 Apr 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 22.7% on 13 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 22.7% on 13 Jun 2025. $60.42K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 69 points, 24 Apr 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2025 | 22.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| AION5101 | Yes | 429.49 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 73.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law or otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at giving new parents or soon-to-be parents a money by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The benefit may take different forms, including direct payments, refundable tax credits, vouchers, bonds, or installments, however it must be tied to the birth or newborn status of a child. Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-baby-bonus-before-july
| Yes |
| 67.58 |
| miodrag333 | Yes | 53.96 |
| roq | Yes | 10.31 |
| BiggChungus | Yes | 4.17 |
| Noysa | No | 1.11 |
| ineedmoreiq | No | 0.02 |
| 30XA | No | 0.02 |
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