Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 45.5%. Yes opened at 52% on 4 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 4 Nov 2025 to 5 Nov 2025, the highest close was 52% on 4 Nov 2025 and the lowest 45.5% on 5 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 45.5% on 5 Nov 2025. $27.8K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 6, 8:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 4 Nov 2025 – 5 Nov 2025, chart shows 40%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2025 | 52.0% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | 45.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| summitcompute | No | 2.09K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 959 |
| AllByMyseIf | No | 689.96 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 473 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between November 3, 7:00 PM ET, and November 7, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-november-7
| brisenoamieva | No | 250.48 |
| lissartter | No | 181.62 |
| Spadez | No | 170 |
| minibonobo | No | 164.75 |
| Dankwizart420 | No | 109.09 |
| Jamieeee | No | 89.29 |
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