Analytics
Resolved Yes on 9 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 30%. Yes opened at 49% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 9 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 70% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 30% on 9 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 70% on 28 Feb 2026.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 10, 12:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 9 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 49.0% |
| 9 Mar 2026 | 30.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 2Pacc | No | 1.59K |
| LukeGamma | No | 1K |
| ElizabethChaney8978 | No | 621 |
| kamarat | No | 499.93 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-529
| MariaMoss3907 | No | 362 |
| MagnusKing | No | 315.28 |
| Alienated-Resist | No | 269.11 |
| All-Ideal | No | 218.15 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 199.98 |
| bjprolo | No | 100 |
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