Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.7%. Yes opened at 39% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 18 Jan 2026, the highest close was 45% on 9 Jan 2026 and the lowest 5.3% on 18 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 14% on 14 Jan 2026. $23.57K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 18 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 39.0% |
| 18 Jan 2026 | 5.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lcflo | Yes | 924.12 |
| heresjimmy | Yes | 741.22 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 329 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 205 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-235
| JessicaHuerta6606 | Yes | 162 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| mazzaccone | Yes | 115.91 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 115 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 105 |
| Guest-Future | Yes | 104.63 |
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