Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 58.5%. Yes opened at 69.5% on 7 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 7 Dec 2025 to 16 Dec 2025, the highest close was 70% on 8 Dec 2025 and the lowest 49.5% on 14 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 55.5% on 13 Dec 2025. $38.85K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 17, 8:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 7 Dec 2025 – 16 Dec 2025, chart shows 40%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Dec 2025 | 69.5% |
| 16 Dec 2025 | 58.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PimpoBimbo | No | 3.36K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 889 |
| Prime-Hydrogen | No | 400.21 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 253 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-637
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 223 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 181 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 178 |
| GamblerCultist | No | 155 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 151 |
| homdeus | No | 139.79 |
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