Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 1 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2026 to 8 Mar 2026, the highest close was 46.5% on 1 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 17.5% on 2 Mar 2026.
80 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 10:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 1 Mar 2026 – 8 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | 46.5% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 49.67K |
| Emerald Meteor 5F56 | Yes | 4.55K |
| 881112 | Yes | 2.5K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by
| LukeDelta | Yes | 2K |
| margin | Yes | 1.67K |
| Cemoneymaker | Yes | 1.03K |
| Legal-Mastoid | Yes | 1K |
| GUADANHAO | Yes | 1K |
| Cartieru | Yes | 776.4 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
