Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 1 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 277 daily closes on record from 1 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 9.5% on 5 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 31 Dec 2025. $214.86K traded over the market's life.
123 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 277 points, 1 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2025 | 8.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Informal-Configuration | Yes | 8.07K |
| asdasdadasdasd | Yes | 3.23K |
| samdyeraction | Yes | 2.93K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announce-run-for-3rd-term
| Noted-Wrestler | Yes | 2.7K |
| Neon Horizon CB51 | Yes | 2.41K |
| tupac | Yes | 2.39K |
| ElInvests | Yes | 1.79K |
| lian10217 | Yes | 1.33K |
| awiesy | Yes | 1.21K |
| lissartter | Yes | 1.13K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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