Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 26 Oct 2023. Before it settled, the high was 33.5% on 28 May 2024 and the low 0.5% on 15 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 33.5% on 28 May 2024. $11.74K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 16, 11:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 265 points · 26 Oct 2023 – 16 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2023 | 5.5% |
| 16 Jul 2024 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jade Summit E014 | Yes | 32.52K |
| Moonshot | Yes | 1K |
| beam | Yes | 70.45 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden loses the Democratic nomination for POTUS and Donald Trump loses the Republican nomination for POTUS in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", both named candidates must lose the described nominations. If one loses and the other wins, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Democratic and Republican national conventions, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-and-biden-both-lose-nomination
| BigTexNatty | No | 20 |
| 793joel | Yes | 16.09 |
| testorrrr-testing-mc-testfacey | Yes | 1.11 |
| 50Whence | Yes | 0.03 |
| Grisnatch | Yes | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
