Analytics
Resolved Yes on 29 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 94.5%. Yes opened at 68% on 16 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 94.5% on 29 Jan 2026 and the low 14.5% on 19 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 50 points up, to 65.5% on 23 Jan 2026. $1.05M traded over the market's life.
333 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 30, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 16 Dec 2025 – 29 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2025 | 68.0% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | 94.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Randy11 | No | 172.59K |
| mazw8 | No | 18.51K |
| mattfa | No | 14.98K |
| northquest | No | 11.62K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tesla-launches-unsupervised-full-self-driving-fsd-by
| bag-holder | No | 10.66K |
| kiang5 | No | 10.18K |
| WongKimArk | No | 7.45K |
| libik2026 | No | 5.45K |
| Thankful-Gerbil | No | 4.54K |
| rdp05 | No | 4.29K |
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