Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 52.5%. Yes opened at 37% on 5 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 5 Jul 2026 to 14 Jul 2026, the highest close was 52.5% on 14 Jul 2026 and the lowest 33.5% on 7 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 52% on 13 Jul 2026. $1.15K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 15, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 5 Jul 2026 – 14 Jul 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2026 | 37.0% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 52.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 303.85 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| HerrieDavis | No | 50.99 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/tedcruz
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ted-cruz-of-tweets-july-7-july-14-2026
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 49 |
| Ivory Ledger D69F | No | 45 |
| 387411007415611814092217897387 | No | 19.66 |
| triklozoid | No | 15 |
| Mojito9 | No | 11.28 |
| rocketcrypto | No | 5 |
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