Analytics
Resolved Up on 5 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Up at 98.9%. The Up side opened at 71.5% on 21 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 21 Mar 2026 to 5 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.9% on 5 May 2026 and the lowest 71.5% on 21 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.2 points up, to 94.3% on 23 Apr 2026. $9.43K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 6, 1:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 21 Mar 2026 – 5 May 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | 71.5% |
| 5 May 2026 | 98.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rocketcrypto | Down | 4.99 |
| VlSch | Up | 2.06 |
| ganjubas22 | Down | 1.08 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Down | 0.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same. The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter. This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-q1-2026
| Amber Scout E040 | Up | 0.08 |
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