Analytics
Yes is at 73%, about where the market opened on 9 Mar 2026.
Across the 218 daily closes on record from 9 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 77% on 25 May 2026 and the lowest 38% on 10 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 58%; a month before, 46.5%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 38% on 10 Mar 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$15.71K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $239.92, with a 34.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 132 trades, $455.83 bought Yes and $5.76K bought No; the largest was a $4.32K buy of No at 87.0¢.
The largest Yes position is running3713 with 500 shares; the largest No position is itachihaha with 442. Ten wallets hold 91% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 218 points, 9 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2026 | 72.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 73.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| running3713 | Yes | 500 |
| Indolent-Reward | Yes | 446.61 |
| itachihaha | No | 441.98 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| xtxpleasecallme |
| No |
| 355.59 |
| Rapid Kestrel A206 | Yes | 113.1 |
| Phomaiar | No | 96.97 |
| ChasingPaper | No | 65.95 |
| zk2028 | Yes | 50 |
| imnotaseallion | No | 31.69 |
| Haradwaith | No | 30.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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