Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 12% on 6 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 120 daily closes on record from 6 Jul 2024 to 2 Nov 2024, the highest close was 12% on 6 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 6.5% on 7 Jul 2024. $2.39M traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 3, 3:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 120 points, 6 Jul 2024 – 2 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2024 | 12.0% |
| 2 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 175.97K |
| Bold Summit 43D6 | Yes | 384 |
| Rapid Horizon F092 | Yes | 310 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Conservative Party in the UK following Rishi Sunak is Suella Braverman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Rishi Sunak. The primary resolution source will be official government sources; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the next leader of the Tories after Rishi Sunak is not known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives
| Yes |
| 216 |
| Rapid Horizon 69F4 | Yes | 214 |
| Bold Raven 6292 | Yes | 184 |
| Amber Orbit F790 | Yes | 168 |
| Coral Horizon 614C | Yes | 154 |
| ForZiIi | Yes | 150 |
| Mori-371 | Yes | 139 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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