Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 13 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 13 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 42.5% on 13 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 17.5% on 14 Sep 2025. $47.13K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 13 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2025 | 42.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pamps | Yes | 1.61K |
| MagicEightBall | Yes | 1.37K |
| Flippingfreak | Yes | 631.92 |
| Kr1v1tka | Yes | 488 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures the listed intersections in Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by September 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersections will be considered captured if any part of the intersections is shaded blue, indicating a claimed Ukrainian counteroffensive/reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded blue by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Ukraine comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Ukraine captures the intersections, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Vilne Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vilne+intersection.png Kucheriv Yar Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+intersection.png Location Zoomed: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne+zoom.jpeg Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne.jpeg Vilne Intersection Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/mQJabFjS1M5cWNyt5 Kucheriv Yar Intersection Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FeV7XeKUnqdXMGfx7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| prtscrn1989 | Yes | 291.87 |
| Jamphone | Yes | 218.08 |
| Royal Meteor 25E2 | Yes | 200.12 |
| Newuser2 | Yes | 101.67 |
| lissartter | Yes | 44.6 |
| excelsior | Yes | 35 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/successful-ukrainian-counterattack-in-donbass-by-september-15
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