Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 65.8%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 11 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 37.4% on 15 Sep 2026 and the low 20% on 13 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 37.4% on 15 Sep 2026. $143.98 traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 18, 12:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 11 Sep 2026 – 17 Sep 2026, chart shows 15%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | 34.5% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 34.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| a5533 | Yes | 49.99 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.8 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 7.99 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-15
| Wordy-Doctrine | Yes | 5 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
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