Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.8%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 2 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 8 Oct 2026, the highest close was 5.2% on 8 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 7 Oct 2026. $420 traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 9, 12:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 8 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 5.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". Kansas carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid October 6, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Kansas market and make no claim about Kansas's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/state-d4-drought-2026-10-06
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
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