Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.5%. Yes opened at 3.6% on 11 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 20.5% on 13 Sep 2026 and the low 3.6% on 11 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 20.5% on 13 Sep 2026. $44 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 18, 12:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 11 Sep 2026 – 17 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | 3.6% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 4.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tiongbu | Yes | 21 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 8 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indiana has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". Indiana carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 15, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Indiana market and make no claim about Indiana's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/state-d4-drought-2026-09-15
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