Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.5%. Yes opened at 85% on 28 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 4 Sep 2026, the highest close was 98.3% on 30 Aug 2026 and the lowest 75.8% on 2 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 96% on 3 Sep 2026. $2.77K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 4, 12:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026, chart shows 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 85.0% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 96.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arkansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". Arkansas carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Arkansas market and make no claim about Arkansas's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/state-d4-drought-2026-09-01
| TENETENET | No | 9.99 |
| Traderpro777 | No | 8 |
| bjprolo | No | 8 |
| triklozoid | No | 5 |
| Weepy-Item | No | 5 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 0.01 |
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