
The Up side is at 72.5%, up 5 points from 67.5% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
The high was 72% on 21 Oct 2026 and the low 67.5% on 21 Oct 2026.
$7.43K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $27.68K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 174 trades, $2.89K bought Up and $828.16 bought Down; the largest was a $1.12K buy of Up at 61.3¢.
The largest Up position is e25247f2da2a2462f03c936c379b7ab0 with 4.8K shares; the largest Down position is thanksforplayin with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 87.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 21 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 21, 5:36 AM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 64%–76%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 67.5% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 72.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| e25247f2da2a2462f03c936c379b7ab0 | Up | 4.8K |
| thanksforplayin | Down | 1.41K |
| Anononono | Down | 1.3K |
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-october-21-2026
| grasstoucher69 | Down | 1K |
| xthype | Down | 526.44 |
| KOMZY | Down | 474.55 |
| PBot-10 | Up | 359.84 |
| 0x06ce...c70b8b | Up | 256 |
| WorkingIsBad | Up | 214.46 |
| GTGroup | Down | 204.16 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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