Analytics
Resolved Down on 22 Oct 2026.
The last price read before settlement had Down at 98.5%. The Up side was at 54.5% at 21 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC, the earliest read in hand. Before it settled, across 3 price reads from 21 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC to 22 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC, the highest read was 54.5% on 21 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC and the lowest 1.5% on 22 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. $2.07K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 23, 1:30 PM UTC
6-hour closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 21 Oct, 18:00 UTC – 22 Oct, 12:00 UTC
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 54.5% |
| 22 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hollow-Month | Up | 619.98 |
| believeromeo | Up | 275.57 |
| ytho | Up | 40 |
| a5533 | Up | 22.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 22 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 22 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-october-22-2026
| triklozoid | Up | 20 |
| winstonhwd | Up | 15 |
| TENETENET | Up | 10 |
| PiratePyro | Up | 7.96 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | Up | 5 |
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