Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 133 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 12 Jun 2026 (38 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 11 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 11.3% on 5 May 2026. $11.59K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 12, 6:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 133 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 12 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 7.5% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| huyewell | Yes | 3.95K |
| cautegena | Yes | 188.75 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990). This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met: - An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs. If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No” The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-goes-public-through-bill-ackman-spar-company
| Yes |
| 148.31 |
| ma99 | Yes | 108.17 |
| akunai | Yes | 104.47 |
| fm14 | Yes | 100 |
| mamamiaa | Yes | 99.99 |
| Feisty-Orientation | Yes | 71.72 |
| EstesSchnauzer45209 | Yes | 64.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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