Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 5 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 32.5% on 5 Jan 2025 and the low 0.3% on 17 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 0.3% on 17 Jan 2025. $130.19K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 1:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 13 points · 5 Jan 2025 – 17 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2025 | 32.5% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NoelS | No | 6.41 |
| dergat | No | 1.27 |
| megagrim | No | 0.05 |
| 88381237 | No | 0.04 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the seventh launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-flight-test-7
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