Analytics
Yes is at 8.5%, down 42 points from 50% when the market opened on 30 Jul 2026.
Across the 90 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 57% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 34%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 17.5% on 4 Oct 2026.
$1.61K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.44K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 70 trades, $472.85 bought Yes and $218.9 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Vast-Myth with 201 shares; the largest No position is bubububblebutt with 315. Ten wallets hold 82.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 90 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bubububblebutt | No | 314.58 |
| SusanWarrenHR | No | 236.05 |
| Vast-Myth | Yes | 200.55 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-extradited-to-us-by
| Honored-Utility |
| Yes |
| 114.15 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 88.93 |
| Demanding-Breakthrough | No | 62.32 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 53 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 45.53 |
| Termostating | No | 42.11 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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