SBF released from custody in 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$358.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 6% on 25 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 100 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 13.4% on 24 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.3 points up, to 13.4% on 24 Oct 2025. $358.47K traded over the market's life.

230 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:44 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 100 points, 25 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
25 Sep 2025	6.0%
1 Jan 2026	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
karbonbased	No	3.37K
Thoughtful-Uniform	Yes	2.71K
Misty Signal 4E74	Yes	2.55K

10 of 230 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Sam Bankman-Fried is tweeting again (https://x.com/SBF_FTX/status/1970633704323362904). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.