Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 12% on 25 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 12% on 25 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Oct 2025. $159.01K traded over the market's life.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 10:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 25 Sep 2025 – 1 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2025 | 12.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sadoshi | Yes | 20.53K |
| thomas111 | Yes | 16.41K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 4.3K |
| Patronis23 | Yes | 2.51K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russian-strike-on-a-nato-member-by-october-31
| PepsiSexi | Yes | 1.25K |
| Kiuvrroi | Yes | 778.9 |
| SackMAN10 | Yes | 669.19 |
| itsmeluigi | Yes | 591.04 |
| wang555 | Yes | 536 |
| zero8 | Yes | 500 |
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