Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 5 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 112 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2025 to 29 Mar 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 5 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 29 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 15% on 6 Dec 2025. $1.55M traded over the market's life.
112 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 6:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 0.3% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russian-strike-on-a-nato-member-by-october-31
| Yes |
| 1.53K |
| ACara | Yes | 721.67 |
| Violet Kestrel D5A9 | Yes | 501.55 |
| monalinda | Yes | 479.98 |
| lydikbigboss322 | Yes | 475.99 |
| LupusPax | Yes | 455.97 |
| europeismiddleage | Yes | 403.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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