Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 22 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 315 daily closes on record from 22 Feb 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 25.5% on 25 Jun 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 25.5% on 25 Jun 2024. $49.8K traded over the market's life.
465 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 8:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 315 points, 22 Feb 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2024 | 12.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ER01MM | Yes | 333.33 |
| Acceptable-Carpeting | Yes | 308.39 |
| cbpoly | Yes | 250.19 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation places a nuclear weapon in space (an altitude of 50+ miles above sea level) between February 21, 2024, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russian-nuke-in-space-in-2024
| Bluechip | Yes | 250 |
| BetMoore | Yes | 33.33 |
| ross - 11561 | No | 29.41 |
| GlobalRiskTrends | Yes | 12.78 |
| deepmatter | No | 11.11 |
| jonesBBQ | Yes | 10.53 |
| Pose1don | Yes | 10.26 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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