Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 11% on 17 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 107 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 21.5% on 25 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 16% on 18 Sep 2024. $3.51M traded over the market's life.
246 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 107 points, 17 Sep 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2024 | 11.0% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SPectre | Yes | 182.99K |
| Insidepolitic | Yes | 142.45K |
| ea00 | Yes | 119.64K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Ukraine and Russia both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. If only one country (e.g. only Ukraine, or only Russia) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2024
| Yes |
| 82.69K |
| pnads23 | Yes | 25.23K |
| ketib2 | Yes | 25K |
| Kriptn33 | Yes | 23.99K |
| Mx001 | Yes | 21.05K |
| impermeantgains | Yes | 14.02K |
| 279c | Yes | 13.95K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
