Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 27 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 27 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 7.8% on 30 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.3 points down, to 1.5% on 31 Dec 2024. $388.93K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:45 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 27 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2024 | 6.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zlumer | Yes | 600 |
| PNPL | Yes | 302.33 |
| Adaaa | Yes | 115 |
| crowley666 | Yes | 83.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Russia explicitly claims responsibility for the downing of Flight J2-8243 on December 25, 2024, by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claims can come from statements by the Russian government, military, or intelligence services. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Russia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-claims-responsibility-for-downing-azerbaijan-plane
New to prediction markets?
| BruhNoobXD | Yes | 71.94 |
| Rfkfqjrb | Yes | 50 |
| Vladimir333 | Yes | 15 |
| avathomas | No | 2.05 |
| Tomas7777 | No | 0.03 |
| ImHereForTheRewards | Yes | 0.02 |
