Analytics
Resolved Yes on 6 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 88.5%. Yes opened at 79.5% on 16 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 205 daily closes on record from 16 Apr 2024 to 6 Nov 2024, the highest close was 89.5% on 24 Oct 2024 and the lowest 64.5% on 11 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 70% on 6 Aug 2024. $338.53K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 7:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 205 points, 16 Apr 2024 – 6 Nov 2024, chart shows 50%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Apr 2024 | 79.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | 88.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Shrubs | No | 1.15K |
| WebbyVanderhack | No | 40 |
| Draaaaakje | No | 14 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican candidate for president wins the popular vote in any state in the 2024 US presidential election that was won by Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". States won by Biden in 2020 include: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Republican candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/republicans-flip-a-2020-biden-state
| Coral Quasar AD18 | No | 8.46 |
| moi-email | No | 6.01 |
| Pantagruel | Yes | 4 |
| nada | Yes | 0.03 |
| 252 | Yes | 0.01 |
| ImHereForTheRewards | Yes | 0.01 |
| TYIRYIRYU | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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