Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 88%. Yes opened at 31% on 19 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 19 Jun 2024 to 6 Jul 2024, the highest close was 57.5% on 5 Jul 2024 and the lowest 12% on 6 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 12% on 6 Jul 2024. $8.82K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 6:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 19 Jun 2024 – 6 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2024 | 31.0% |
| 6 Jul 2024 | 12.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.28K |
| Picks8 | Yes | 252.96 |
| breakingchess | Yes | 250 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Reform UK wins between 15% (inclusive) and 19% (exclusive) of votes in the UK General Election scheduled for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by Reform UK, not any coalition of which it may be a part. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/reform-share-of-votes-in-uk-election
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