Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 27%. Yes opened at 49% on 8 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 8 Feb 2026 to 28 Feb 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 8 Feb 2026 and the lowest 26% on 24 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 27.5% on 22 Feb 2026. $5.4K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 8 Feb 2026 – 28 Feb 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | 49.0% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 27.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 461.23 |
| Watery-Wolf | No | 72.21 |
| MEV-PM | No | 60 |
| Anuds | No | 48.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 28, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution source: https://www.ligaportugal.pt/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/por-gui-alv-2026-02-28
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