Analytics
Yes is at 1.1%, down 17 points from 18.5% when the market opened on 11 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 11 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 18.5% on 11 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.2%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 2.8% on 12 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Panama Canal effectively closed by...?”.
$145.15 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $12.02K, with a 1.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Unwritten-Upward with 73 shares; the largest No position is vozomnil with 77.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 11:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 11 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| vozomnil | No | 77 |
| Unwritten-Upward | Yes | 73.15 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 57 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt
| Milin-dc |
| No |
| 30 |
| 0561 | No | 23.15 |
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