Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 15% on 12 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 12 Nov 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 15% on 12 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 5.5% on 13 Nov 2025. $11.1K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 23, 9:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 12 Nov 2025 – 1 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2025 | 15.0% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.09K |
| 854A7843 | Yes | 466.16 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 173 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 148 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Indian territory by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Indian territory (e.g., if a Pakistani missile or drone hits a target within India’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Indian territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Indian soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Pakistani ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pakistan-strike-on-india-by
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 126 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 123 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 119 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | Yes | 107 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 97 |
| lissartter | Yes | 65.84 |
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