Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 19% on 5 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 19% on 5 Aug 2025 and the low 0.3% on 1 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 9.5% on 6 Aug 2025. $15.35K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 9:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 28 points · 5 Aug 2025 – 1 Sep 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | 19.0% |
| 1 Sep 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 5.14K |
| potholderz | Yes | 400 |
| Bb12503 | Yes | 245.83 |
| magomed | Yes | 50.48 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Indian soil between August 4, and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Indian ground territory. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Indian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly along the line of control, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or sanctions, will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pakistan-strike-on-india-by-august-31
| Dominik0627 | Yes | 43.17 |
| Gi13 | Yes | 30 |
| AnoojDharm | Yes | 25 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 25 |
| Jonnygu | Yes | 16.67 |
| NASHDAN | Yes | 16.67 |
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